Holiday travel expected down by 30%, but Orlando hotels hope for small bump in business
In a year of few bright spots for tourism, Orlando hotels are looking for one small win for the holidays: bookings are expected to be down only 52% from last year, according to preliminary data from Visit Orlando.
“As crazy as it sounds, that’s an improvement,” said Daryl Cronk, Visit Orlando’s senior director of market research and insights.
The week of Dec. 5 saw occupancy rates of 33.2% in the Orlando area according to analysts STR, a 55.9% drop from the same time in 2019.
Looking at advance bookings for the week of Dec. 26-Jan. 1, which is when Visit Orlando studies holiday travel, Cronk estimates the percentage of occupied rooms will be in the high 30s.
“That’s a little better than what we have been tracking,” he said.
He’s also counting on a last-minute influx of travelers who have not booked ahead. “The booking window has gotten a lot shorter in the pandemic,” he said.
Cronk, however, acknowledges the double-edged sword of increased holiday travel possibly leading to Orlando being labeled a “hot spot” for coronavirus infections.
“I think as a destination we have put safety first,” he said. “It’s about finding the right balance of opening up so that we’re welcoming, but keeping the safety.”
However, travel of all kinds is expected to be down this season, with AAA releasing an end-of-year forecast Tuesday that predicts 34 million fewer Americans will head out for holiday trips. The travel club expects 1.7 million fewer Floridians to travel, a drop of 30% from last year.
“While Thanksgiving is traditionally spent gathering with friends and family, the year-end holidays are when Americans traditionally venture out for longer, more elaborate vacations. That will not be the case this year,” said AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins.
AAA’s forecast also warns that their estimates of who will travel might actually be high. It predicted travel to be down by 10% for Thanksgiving, and though it doesn’t have all the raw data yet, it expects the real decline to be closer to 15% or 20%.
“With COVID 1/4 u201119 cases steadily increasing this month, the expected continued rise will likely prompt some Americans to make last-minute decisions to not follow through with upcoming travel plans, which was the trend during the lead up to Thanksgiving,” Jenkins said.
Still, Visit Orlando is betting on Central Florida being an attractive destination for the people who do decide to travel. They have launched a push in marketing toward Florida residents, and they are hoping the state’s lack of pandemic-related restrictions will give it an edge over other traditional locations.
“We do have some competitive advantages,” Cronk said, citing closure at Disneyland in California and restrictions in Las Vegas and New York.
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